What awaits on the other side of the Knight, and the Ledger

By Steven Zeitchik

Now that "The Dark Knight" has finally been knocked off its month-long perch, assuring that it will merely share the title of most durable summer hit with "Saving Private Ryan," it's back to business-as-usual for August movies -- here one week, next week the way of the Chinese track team. Tropic Thunder (aka the movie that  rode pseudo-offensiveness to real box office), scored $26m and pushed "Knight" down to a $17 million opening. Even in these soft late August days, it's going to be hard for the rubberized one to rebound.

Even assuming Knight can maintain or slightly grow its numbers in the coming weeks, the schedule won't be forgiving. Next week sees Knight squeezed from both the action side with Paul W.S. Anderson-Jason Statham chase-core remake "Death Race." (Universal moved it up from September, and look for a big weekend; Anderson's last three pics averaged $28m openings.) And Knight will feel heat on the comedy side, where Peter Cattaneo's mid-budget "The Rocker" should take a bite out of Knight's male repeat viewers.

The following week it doesn't get easier, as Lionsgate goes wide with "Disaster Movie." Arguably the only film that has ever spoofed monster movies and a former vice president (its tagline: "Al Gore was right") at the same time, the movie comes in with a surprisingly strong commercial pedigree: writer-director team Jason Friedberg and Aaron Seltzer have opened their two previous helming-scribbling collaborations at #1.

Of course there's no need to send condolences to Warners or Chris Nolan. It's been a good ride for Knight, and not just for the usual reasons. The Batman pic showed endurance in a summer so without legs it was practically a dwarf. Exhibit A on this point came this weekend, when all returning movies that had been out less than a month --four in total -- dropped by at least 40%. On the comparable weekend last year, only one in five did that.

But there are limits even to Knight's power to carry over. To wit: Given how much intrigue has surrounded Heath Ledger, you'd think distributors would be salivating over his final pic, Terry Gilliam's "The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus," the way NBC has drooled over Michael Phelps. But conversation with sources indicate the movie (whose footage has yet to be seen by buyers) could have a tough go in completing a desirable domestic sale.

On the one hand, after all, it's a chance for buyers to pick up an indie that will allow them to market not only Ledger but Johnny Depp, Colin Farrell and Jude Law, who of course stepped in to play Ledger's role. But on the other hand, you have the surrealness of Terry Gilliam -- the movie is, indeed, about parallel worlds, immortal doctors and traveling theater troupes -- and, well, Gilliam. His last three directorial efforts averaged $16 million in total domestic box office.

And you may not exactly be picking up the movie at an indie price either: The budget for "Parnassus" is said to be north of $20 million, which means financier Grosvenor Park and producer Sammy Hadida would possibly be looking for a tidy low-mid eight figures. Perhaps that's why one buyer said that "in this market, unless I have a reason to think a movie like this is going to be a slam dunk I'm not going to take a flyer on it, even with Heath Ledger."

But look for Lionsgate to make a play for domestic rights to the film. The minimajor already has international on the pic, so a U.S. buy could offer some welcome synergies on this marketing puzzle. And if Gilliam's effort is really that  kooky, Lionsgate could feature some of the scarier elements in "Disaster Movie 2."

Comments

[HollywoodDream]

I hope that "The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus" gets the wide release that it deserves. Even if it doesn't set the box office ablaze, I'm sure it will make a killing on DVD.

[Griff]

"Arguably the only film that has ever spoofed monster movies..."

Bud Abbott and Lou Costello might disagree.