Senators, Presidents and the Wacky Fall Ahead

By Steven Zeitchik

In the specialty world, the summer ends as it began -- with more confusion and musical chairs than at a children's birthday party (or the Republican convention).

It was, after all, back on June 3 that Paramount Vantage began its non-consolidatory consolidation -- it folded in marketing, distribution and physical production in what turned out to be prelude to the laying off of sixty staffers, its reinvention as a genre label and the departures of specialty vets Amy Israel and Gerry Rich. So why should the first week of September be any different?

Though the specialty market may be in greater doledrums than David Bergstein's bank account, there's hope in the form of one of Bergstein's recent execs -- Mark Urman, who as grills fired up over Labor Day created some heat with the news that he was joining the revitalized Senator (and ensuring one more company name for optimist pundits to cite along with Overture, Summit and "Bob Berney's new company, when he starts it").

We're not sure how this will all affect the upcoming market at Toronto, the release calendar in '08-'09 and the landscape in general, not any more than we're sure of just who's siring all those Palin children. We do know that despite the changes roiling the specialty market, Urman notes that this is "the perfect time to launch a company of this shape and size" and described an outfit equipped to handle both larger and more specialized releases. Godspeed, Mark; you've always been one of our favorite interviews, and we're hoping you'll continue to meet the press with aplomb now that you're a senator.

Of course it's not just Urman who makes news as leaves and temperatures turn. With the fall comes hope, rebirth and scores of Oscar hopefuls that could fade faster than a Russian qualifier at the U.S. Open. Here are a few predictions of stories that, as the fall unfolds, you're likely to read (hopefully here, because we've already gotten a jump on the ledes).

* The Coen Bros' "Burn After Reading" will be the one of biggest moneymaking crossovers of the year  (that's almost as weird to write as "The Coen Bros. have won best picture and best director"), prompting a rash of pieces about how Clooney can still make money if he's in an ensemble piece with Brad Pitt.

* The Aronofsky Comeback: Two years ago the man who gave us Pi was eating crow at Toronto when the problem-plagued "Fountain" went into the drink. This year his new movie, "The Wrestler," will land a big seven-figure sale to an MGM, an Overture or a Searchlight, and all will be forgiven for the erstwhile Brooklyn wunderkind, who will inspire stories of a second act just like the not-quite-washed-up protagonist of his new movie.

*  Picturehouse's final release, "The Women," makes a modest ripple. But the bigger news comes at roughly the same time as Bob Berney announces his new company.

* We'll save Oscars for other posts -- given that speculation has been going on for months, perhaps we should really be predicting '09 -- but we will throw out a few of the choices we see as favorites (at least until they're not): Sean Penn for best actor ("Milk") , Angelina Jolie for best actress ("Changeling") and, we know it sounds crazy, especially to anyone who's been beholding the Brad Pitt makeup job, but we'll say that the David Fincher-Eric Roth-F. Scott Fitzgerald-Sir Brad collaboration will pay of with best picture buzz for "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button."

* "W" gets more minutes on Bill O'Reilly than it does people in theaters.

* Edgy-slash-provocative-slash-grossout -- but still poignant and romantic -- tales of young love will be all the rage thanks to movies like Kevin Smith's "Zack and Miri Make a Porno" and Peter Sollett's "Nick & Norah's infinite Playlist" -- call it the Sweetcore movement -- which will pick up where Judd Apatow and "American Pie" left off.

* "Quantum of Solace" will show that an action movie in November -- over Election Day, no less -- is a viable day/strategy, and an MGM resurgence will thus be (temporarily) touted

* Jennifer Aniston. Surely there are other actors whose name comes to mind when the superserious autumnal season is mentioned. But the former sitcom star will have at least two movies within six weeks this fall and winter, and could have as many as four depending on when "Traveling" studio Universal and the buyer on her Toronto title "Management" each decide to release their films. The studios involved will get a major discount on their publicity buck, prompting a pseudo-new trend: the group rate on late-night promotions.

No doubt there will be more and new ones to come, but for now we're sticking to all these predictions, like a studio sticks with its specialty execs.

Comments

[Marketing Strategy]

Bush pledged that some kind of temporary solution, possibly as loan guarantees, was being worked out, Mr. http://marketing.postedpost.com/