The Twilight Zone: Just how big will the Stephenie Meyer adaptation be?

By Steven Zeitchik

We've learned long ago to be skeptical of Comic-Con sensations. The place is the ultimate bubble, and just because a few light sabers swing in your direction doesn't mean the money will follow.

But just because something has a hardcore fan base in San Diego doesn't mean it won't be a huge moneymaker either (just ask Robert Downey Jr.'s accountant).

So which rule should we follow for "Twilight," that box-office enigma that could turn into this year's "Harry Potter" -- or another example of the Comic-Con illusion?

We spent the last few days hunkering down in the details of the Summit project -- the fans, the marketing, the doomed vampire romance of Bella and Edward (in case you haven't been spending much time around 12-year-old girls lately, they're the teen lovers, she from a broken home and he of the broken skin, at the center of this parable of high-school outsiderness).

The Stephenie Meyer books, four so far ("Twilight" is the first) have sold millions of copies and engendered a cult following so strong that even the city where the story is set -- a depressed Washington timber town called Forks -- has become a tourist destination for minivans packed with tween girls and their game but befuddled parents.

So what are the prospects for the movie that is probably the most hyped genre release -- and outside of "The Quantum of Solace," the most hyped commercial release generally -- of the fall?

What we found is that for every argument arguing one side of the success of the November 21 release, something bites back on the other side. A few of them:

--The books are bestsellers. But are they mega-bestsellers, to the point where readers alone can drive ticket sales, like "The Da Vinci Code" did?

--Boys won't go because there's not enough action. But mothers might -- see under: Summit's marketing to an online contingent called Twilight Moms (a distant cousin to hockey moms).

--It's hard for a startup studio like Summit to spend enough to push the box office to tentpole levels. But with a budget in the $40-50 million range, it doesn't exactly need to outearn "The Dark Knight" to become profitable.

--There's precedent for teen-vampire stories to cross over -- just look at "Buffy." But the TV series built an audience over years. "Twilight" will have to pull it off over a couple weekends.

However all these arguments shake out, Summit is nervous, going into a stealth mode of sorts with its publicity and marketing campaigns (this after louder proclamations, like an EW cover, earlier in the cycle).  And understandably so.  When the studio announced they'd bought the book and were putting Catherine Hardwicke on to direct it (exactly one year ago this week, actually), they had no idea what they were in for. Who could? The books were popular then, but since then they've exploded, and an online cult of project-trackers grew around the film's production that makes the tabloid reporters following the "Sex and the City" shoot look like, well, high-school amateurs.   By now Twilight is not just another fall release but an object lesson in whether a studio can create a franchise with more modest budgets, and one aimed at the elusive MySpace demo, no less.

The box office calendar won't be merciful. The movie comes the week after a pic that is decidedly boy-friendly, Quantum of Solace (finally opening here after a week in India), and the same weekend as "Bolt," which could siphon off parents of younger children who otherwise might be taking their tween daughters to "Twilight." But the arguments on the other side are equally strong. Someone, either those predicting big money or those downplaying the film as just a one-quadrant pony, is going to get bitten.

Comments

[Natasha]

This article was very well researched and made some interesting points.

Good job!

[Batman]

boys will go.. to impress girls

[Jhan]

No chance I see this movie. No chance.

[melrey136]

Why does Twilight have to be compared to Potter??!!! Every artical about this movie and a lot of interviews have to include Harry Potter..why?? Last I checked Twilight doesn't have flying brooms or magic wands....and it's not like these two are the first books to ever be put on the big screen so why so many comparisions? Either way, Twilight will be huge bc of all the young fans, and us older ones also.

[Brittany]

good article other than the fact that i resent the whole, 12- year old fans. I am in fact 21 years old and I have yet to actually come across a 12 year old fan of the Twilight books. I know there are plenty out there but there are also a TON of older fans too. Hell, I showed the trailers to my 54 year old step-father and now he's trying to convince my mother to go see the movie with him.

[chelsie]

The Twilight books get new fans everyday, i know a ton of people both family and friends even aquaintances at school/work that have read the book or expressed they want to read it. The book is appealing to everyone from my 17 year old MALE cousin, to my 52 year old step-mom and 24 year old female cousin. Along with the fans already that are pumped for the movie. As for boys not wanting to go, they'll go because their girlfriends make them!

And the trailers are doing a good job to promote and appeal to people who havent yet heard of the books.
Not to mention its getting advertised everywhere.

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