Christmas, holy day of box-office judgment

By Steven Zeitchik

Throw all the naughty and nice cliches out the window. Today, Christmas Day, begins a four-day run the likes of which box office hasn't seen since reindeer roamed the earth.

Disney releases its biggest live-action pic of the year in Adam Sandler's "Bedtime Stories." Fox hopes that a dog named Marley rescues it from 2008 box-office danger. Paramount releases its biggest fall movie in years in the pricey and elaborate "Ben Button" and the witching hour for MGM/UA/Tom Cruise comes with the release of "Valkyrie." Lionsgate and Frank Miller are of course in the mix too, as are the priests of Miramax's "Doubt."

Our prediction, based on tracking (which basically squares with what THR guru Gregg Kilday is forecasting): "Bedtime Stories" comes in a strong number one with b.o. solidly over $35m "Button," and "Marley jostle for number two, with the dog wresting it away with its teeth for at least a high 20's finish. "Button finishes a respectable number three in the low 20's, and "Valkyrie" is right behind that. "The Spirit" doesn't fareas well. Hard to know where "Doubt" finishes on its 1200 screens but, really, could the timing for a movie about such subjects be any better.

And by Sunday the big Christmas experiment will end, with four of the biggest bets of the year coming out on exactly the same day. Does anyone have any Thanksgiving cliches?

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